Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 1.679700 2.221659 2.957447 4.056287 5.704202 8.167707e+00 1.230224e+01
2025-01-05 1.145072 1.723713 2.655043 4.357257 7.626403 1.422360e+01 3.052864e+01
2025-01-12 0.766921 1.269067 2.188341 4.166704 8.885887 2.162929e+01 7.029183e+01
2025-01-19 0.524466 0.934007 1.764845 3.816591 9.770248 3.127555e+01 1.684769e+02
2025-01-26 0.399277 0.763574 1.582121 3.916373 12.357268 5.629437e+01 6.852850e+02
2025-02-02 0.328381 0.674437 1.538098 4.416856 17.903140 1.333389e+02 8.554642e+03
2025-02-09 0.279903 0.615495 1.544150 5.184911 28.115368 4.207215e+02 1.434314e+07
2025-02-16 0.231070 0.535730 1.450873 5.560849 39.569239 1.357681e+03 NaN
2025-02-23 0.185440 0.446441 1.278516 5.419950 48.313935 4.034865e+03 NaN
2025-03-02 0.148505 0.367851 1.099804 5.052027 54.585510 1.227695e+04 NaN
2025-03-09 0.128587 0.331388 1.053213 5.443799 79.910384 2.125062e+05 NaN
2025-03-16 0.111787 0.298281 1.001387 5.778324 116.298003 1.318355e+09 NaN
2025-03-23 0.098322 0.272675 0.974184 6.403630 195.784638 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 0.086583 0.248551 0.939957 6.996915 337.120303 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.073334 0.214582 0.837909 6.705737 434.236414 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.061659 0.182663 0.728346 6.116984 489.572575 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.054594 0.165502 0.686448 6.327436 792.929893 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.050317 0.157412 0.689661 7.270644 1955.639644 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.047166 0.152640 0.710266 8.740529 7290.625658 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.043030 0.142455 0.690700 9.489930 23168.840716 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.038260 0.128136 0.634579 9.242450 46088.709875 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.033739 0.113684 0.569326 8.554580 66319.122606 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.031278 0.107507 0.558630 9.325597 529088.154175 NaN NaN